Welcome to Fontana, California and the literal home of the “Old West.” With the oldest surface on the NASCAR schedule the drivers will have two handfuls with the new low downforce package in full affect.
Austin Dillon comes into the race with an average 13.5 place finish… 14th to make this all easy for us. He also enters this race averaging 14 positions better than his averages!
In 2014 Austin finished 11th, 2015 he finished 16th. To account for his current trend/momentum we subtract 14 (this year’s average above his career average) from last year’s finish, we get 2nd.
WARNING: more math ahead.
We add 2 + 11 = 13/2 = 6.5 or 7. Add 7 to his Xfinity average of 16, 16 + 7 = 23/2 = 11.5 or 12th position.
So, my projection for this week is 12th position. Every race my projection has been 4 positions off so anywhere between 8th and 16th would be his projected range. This is statistically one of Austin’s best tracks in Cup series.
I think we can all see why he is good here, lack of grip equals an ill handling car. Ill handling cars and tracks lend themselves to better drivers and drivers who are experienced on dirt. Austin seems to have everything going in his favor this week. The track, the car, the team, the trend.
After last week’s projection, engine tuner and all around great guy on the team, Frank Mathalia, challenged me that they go to win and wouldn’t consider a 13th place finish anything more than a loss. I told him any week they outrun my projection I would donate $1 to Pitstops For Hope, a wonderful charity started by RCR crewman Ray Wright. This charity helps fight childhood hunger. Frank Mathalia basically told me to get serious and challenged me to up it to $5/week. I have accepted and at the end of the year if my projection proves better than their finish each week, Frank will match it. You can watch the score tracker on my Twitter in the bio section. This conversation was all had on Twitter. So, it’s somewhere in the Library of Congress now.
Finally I ask that everyone please check out Pitstops For Hope. I do this only to raise awareness for the charity and the childhood hunger they fight. RCR crew members and several others work with Ray and this amazing charity to help. They have some calendars for the ladies and for guys, we have some amazing raced used stuff. Please feel free to ask myself or Ray any questions or check out their Twitter @pitstopsforhope for information on how to help.
Thank you for reading! I’ll see you from the box.